Winter Storm Warning for Lake Tahoe Sunday night to Monday night

Sunday morning update: The National Weather Service has upgraded their storm observation and there is now a "Winter Storm Warning" in place.

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The next storm heading to Lake Tahoe will be a wet one, and depending on one's elevation, it could be a snowy one as well. The National Weather Service (NWS) in Reno has issued a Winter Storm Watch in effect for the area from Sunday night at 10:00 p.m. to Monday night at 10:00 p.m.

Snow will likely develop Sunday evening, becoming moderate to heavy overnight into Monday morning according to NWS. Snow will taper to showers by Monday at sunset. Strong winds will develop Sunday evening over the ridges and down to the valleys by sunrise on Monday. They will remain strong through Monday evening. Sierra ridge top wind gusts could be up to 120 mph. Valleys could see wind gusts of 50-60 mph.

How much snow is the question.

There is a high degree of uncertainty with this storm, and what will happen at lake level, and all areas between 5,500 and 6,500 feet, will be a "wait and see" situation.

NWS says the most likely scenario will brin 3"-5" of snow near Truckee, 6"-10" at lake level, 1' - 1.5' along the Sierra Crest from Donner Pass to Mammoth, 8"-12" in Mammoth Lakes and 3"-6" along Highway 395 in Mono County.

But, there is an alternate scenario due to the large degree of uncertainty for Truckee and the Lake Tahoe Basin. NWS says, if snow levels remain lower than the forecast, even if just by 500 feet, 8"-12" of snow is likely in the basin and at Truckee. If snow levels remain higher than forecast, rain would mix in, just leaving behind a couple of inches of wet "sloppy" snow for those regions.

NWS has "high confidence" there will be disruptions due to snow and wind for the passes and along Hwy 395. They have "medium confidence" that snow will impact travel in the Tahoe-Truckee areas.

Waves on the lake could be 4-6 feet Monday.

The forecast from the National Weather Service in Reno:

Tonight - A chance of rain and snow before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Southwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Sunday - Rain and snow likely after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 47. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Sunday Night - Rain and snow likely before 10pm, then snow. Low around 31. Breezy, with a southwest wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Monday - Snow, possibly mixed with rain. High near 39. Windy, with a southwest wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Monday Night - Rain and snow showers likely before 10pm, then snow showers likely between 10pm and 4am, then rain and snow showers after 4am. Low around 30. Windy, with a southwest wind 25 to 30 mph decreasing to 15 to 20 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tuesday - Rain and snow, becoming all rain after 10am. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 44. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Tuesday Night - Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 38. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Wednesday - Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47.

Wednesday Night - A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35.

Thursday - A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50.

Thursday Night - Rain and snow. Cloudy, with a low around 35.

Friday - A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42.

Friday Night - A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 25.

Saturday - Sunny, with a high near 39.