NOAA - Absence of El Nino and La Nina this winter; Drier and warmer than normal

There are many things that help those living in Lake Tahoe predict what winter will be like: Has the snow in the cross of Mt. Tallac melted? What does the Farmer's Almanac say? Are the squirrels fatter? Is NOAA going to be right in their three-month forecast?

There is no app to give one the perfect insight into what winter has in store and most weather can only be predicted a week out. For generations, people have relied on signs from Mother Nature.

It has been said that Washoe legend says if the snow in the cross of Mt. Tallac melts before the next winter, there would be record snow. If there is still snow in the cross, winter will be normal.

Signs from Mother Nature there will be a harsh winter, according to folklore, the following happens:

Woodpeckers sharing a tree
The early departure of geese and ducks
Raccoons with thick tails and bright bands
Mice chewing furiously to get into your home
Spiders spinning larger-than-usual webs and entering the house in great numbers
“See how high the hornet’s nest, ‘twill tell how high the snow will rest.”
Squirrels gathering nuts early to fortify against a hard winter
Frequent halos or rings around the sun or moon forecasts numerous snowfalls

The Farmer's Almanac is calling for many ups and downs on the thermometer this winter and, according to their website, it may remind you of a 'Polar Coaster." They predict the west will be cool with normal precipitation.

Perhaps the clearer picture comes from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) official winter seasonal outlook which was released this week.

Warmer-than-average temperatures are forecast for much of the U.S. this winter, according to NOAA. While the El Nino Southern Oscillation climate pattern often influences the winter, neutral conditions are in place this year and expected to persist into the spring. In the absence of El Nino or La Nina, long-term trends become a key predictor for the outlook, while other climate patterns, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation, will likely play a larger role in determining winter weather according to NOAA.

“Without either El Nino or La Nina conditions, short-term climate patterns like the Arctic Oscillation will drive winter weather and could result in large swings in temperature and precipitation,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

This spring saw significant and historic flooding across the central U.S. that impacted nearly 17 million people. However, during the summer and early fall, drought rapidly developed across much of the South, with drought conditions now present across approximately 20 percent of the country.

December through February:

The greatest likelihood for warmer-than-normal conditions is in Alaska and Hawaii, with more modest probabilities for above-average temperatures spanning large parts of the remaining lower 48 from the West across the South and up the eastern seaboard.

The Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and the western Great Lakes have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.

No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures this winter.

Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in Alaska and Hawaii this winter, along with portions of the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes and parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Drier-than-average conditions are most likely for Louisiana, parts of Texas, Mississippi, Arkansas and Oklahoma as well areas of northern and central California.

The remainder of the U.S. falls into the category of equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average precipitation.

NOAA’s seasonal outlooks provide the likelihood that temperatures and total precipitation amounts will be above-, near- or below-average, and how drought conditions are favored to change. The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. Even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall are expected.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook each month. The next update will be available on November 21. Video of October 17 report HERE.

Are you clearer on what type of winter we'll have in Lake Tahoe?

Perhaps we just need to watch the Mt. Tallac cross and the squirrels with their nut storage.