Nevada population expected to grow by more than 425,000 in next 20 years

Nevada'a larger cities and counties are projected to grow by 425,000 by 2035, according to a report released November 1 by the Nevada Department of Taxation. At the same time, rural counties in the state could see a slight decrease in numbers.

Clark and Washoe Counties are likely to see the largest population growth: Clark County could see an increase of 319,501 and Washoe County an increase of 83,926. Carson City, Churchill, Douglas, Lyon, and Storey Counties could see a collective
population increase of 25,670. Some counties could see their populations go down: Elko, Eureka, Humboldt, Lander and Pershing Counties could see a decrease of 510, and the balance of the state - Esmeralda, Lincoln, Mineral, Nye and White Pine Counties - could see a decrease of 2,725.

The projections made in 2014 showed a slightly different forecast. In that report, there were increases across all these areas and nearly 60 percent more than the current projections for Northwestern Nevada.

Population projections are created using the Regional Economics Model, Inc. (REMI) and use historic relationships between the economy and demographic composition of the state and how that relates to whats going on in the rest of the country.

“Nevada has recently regained the jobs that were lost since the peak of employment in 2007,” said state demographer, Jeff Hardcastle. “Compared to the rest of the country and surrounding states, we were behind, but our 2.6 percent rate since the
bottom is the second highest in our 6-state region. This was due to strong growth in 2014.”

Gaming will remain the largest employer in the state with more than 370,000 jobs in the Accommodation and Food Services sector and the Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation sector, Hardcastle said. The next two largest sectors combined, Health Care and Retail, account for 297,000 jobs. Hardcastle points out that manufacturing in Nevada could counter a possible national trend of decreased employment over the long term and increase from around 47,000 jobs to nearly 53,000 jobs over the next 20 years. Nevada is also becoming more competitive in the Transportation and Warehousing sector and the Management of Companies and Enterprises sector.

Nationally and regionally, with the exception of Arizona, lost jobs were regained by 2014. Nationally, 173 percent of lost jobs have been regained.